A mutual reliance exists between the region’s students and campuses: the Inland Empire accounts for one in three incoming freshmen and half of incoming transfers at UC Riverside, and nearly all incoming freshmen and transfers at CSU San Bernardino (Figure 12). Thus, increasing four-year college enrollment in the Inland Empire benefits students and campuses alike. Unfortunately, although both campuses have expressed desires to expand supply, each faces obstacles.
UC Riverside and CSU San Bernardino Face Challenges with Expansion
In its UC 2030 Capacity Plan (2022a), the UC system outlined a plan to significantly increase enrollment, with UC Riverside alone accounting for 35 percent of this projected growth. The Long Range Development Plan (2021) for the campus outlines plans to expand capacity to meet enrollment projections up to 35,000 students by 2035, an increase of over 9,000 students.
To expand to these numbers, however, the Riverside campus would need to significantly increase its academic, research, and support space (including classroom, office, and library capacity) by approximately 50 percent and more than double its student life space—primarily its housing capacity. A companion report from UC, Building 2030 Capacity, points out that despite local support, land, and opportunity to expand, UC Riverside “needs greater support expanding and upgrading its infrastructure.”
While CSU San Bernardino has also expressed a desire to significantly expand its capacity, notably so in its 2016 Campus Master Plan, it faces more pressing challenges. In a 2020 CSU-commissioned report (HOK 2020) the system projected a moderate increase in student demand in the Inland Empire through 2035, requiring its current capacity to nearly double. However, undergraduate enrollment has declined since the pandemic and remains below 2013 levels, even as CSU faces significant budget cuts amid a $1 billion system-level deficit.
Greater demand for college in the San Bernardino region will be necessary to raise enrollment numbers. Factors such as campus proximity, financial constraints, perceived access, and social capital likely influence decisions to apply. If students face work, family, or financial constraints that make moving away from home difficult, their options for higher education will be limited by what is available locally.
On average, community college students in the Inland Empire are relatively far from their nearest CSU and UC campus compared to students in other major regions (Rothstein, Dizon-Ross, and Lacoe 2024). Recent work from the RP Group highlights the strong relationship between proximity and transfer outcomes, finding that transfer rates were far lower for California community colleges that were at least 25 miles from the nearest public university than for those within 25 miles (Segovia and Cooper 2024). By this definition, half of the Inland Empire’s community colleges—Barstow, Copper Mountain, Desert, Mt. San Jacinto, Palo Verde, and Victor Valley—are located in university deserts. Deciding whether to apply or go to college at all likely depends on how accessible the nearest campus is; substantial and growing research shows a relationship between proximity to a college and the likelihood of attending college.
Enrollment may increase with partnerships and targeted strategies
Efforts that could boost access and demand are underway in the region. Growing Inland Achievement (GIA), a supporting member of a regional K–16 collaborative, has wide reach and is engaging in cross-sector partnerships to conduct research, develop student-centered resources, and implement effective postsecondary reforms.
Partnerships between community colleges and four-year universities are key to boosting enrollment at the four-year institutions. Riverside Community College District and UC Riverside recently broke ground on a joint student housing initiative with the goals of addressing student housing insecurity and streamlining transfer into the UC system.
It is also necessary to remove barriers to applying and enrolling. CSU San Bernardino is participating in a direct admissions pilot program that will offer high school students in Riverside County immediate, conditional admission before they even apply. UC Riverside and CSU San Bernardino also have a joint satellite location in Palm Desert, which serves more than 2,000 students (95% of whom come from within the region), likely playing a significant role in addressing place-bound preferences or constraints in the Coachella Valley.
Supporting Students Through Partnerships and Outreach Programs
Several high school districts and community college leaders highlighted the importance of nonprofits and outreach programs in filling gaps where students need support. National programs like AVID and state programs like CalSOAP offer similar supports to students and assist with college readiness and planning.
A multitude of nonprofits and outreach programs exist for students in the Inland Empire, many of which target their services to a certain microregion or population due to the region’s vastness and diversity. These organizations provide college tours, internships, job shadowing, networking, application support, financial aid workshops, scholarships, and mentorship.
BLU Education Foundation is a community partner working on college and career access, especially for students with limited income and opportunities. The foundation runs several programs to help students obtain college degrees and explore career paths, including a year-long health pathway program, the Black Educator Pipeline Project, and the College Exodus Project. The Black College and Career Access Network (BCCAN) shares resources with Black students and guides them toward attaining a college degree and viable career. By utilizing program alumni as college tour guides or for job shadowing, students can gain a sense of belonging as they see themselves represented in higher education and beyond.
While these programs are designed to promote positive outcomes, there is opportunity for improvement in reaching a broader range of students. Currently, many require students to opt in or self-select, which can limit their overall impact. Outreach efforts often offer essential one-on-one support, especially where schools may face capacity constraints—highlighting the value of expanding and strengthening such supports. With better coordination and alignment across organizations, and by working to bring these efforts to scale, there is real potential to extend their reach and effectiveness for more students across the region.
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